Which is the Best Division in the NFL?

By Harrison Chase and Austin Tymins

Earlier this semester, HSAC was fortunate enough to have Bill Barnwell, formerly of Grantland.com, come to a meeting discuss all things NFL with us. One of the questions that came up was which division was the best one. It turned out to be a pretty tricky question to answer, as none of them seem to clearly stand above the rest.

We decided to approach this question quantitatively, using our new POWER rankings to answer this question. By finding the average ranking of each team in the division, we could rank the divisions from best to worst. Note: we thought about finding the average winning percentage if an average team, POWER Ranking of 0.5, played against all teams in the division, but it actually turned out to just 1 – the average rank, so they are essentially the same. From worst to best, the ordering of the divisions by POWER Rankings is below.

AFC South: 0.374

When Barnwell spoke to us, he said that identifying the best division was rather tricky but that the worst one was pretty obvious. The AFC South is BY FAR the worst division in the NFL. With the bottom two teams (Houston and Tennessee) along with another bottom five team (Jacksonville), Indianapolis sits atop this meager excuse of a division despite being the 21st best team in the NFL by our reckoning. With Luck out for a few weeks, the Colts may slip even more.

NFC North: 0.481

Despite back-to-back loses, Green Bay still comes in distant fourth in our rankings. Even that isn’t enough to save the NFC North from being the second weakest division, as it is dragged down by the Bears and the Lions, both among the bottom seven teams. Minnesota has surprised people this year, sitting pretty at 6-2, but they are still only a slightly above average team by our measure.

AFC North: 0.507

In the first above average division, we have Cincinnati third, but similar to the Packers their division’s strength is being dragged down by two teams. Cleveland, despite whatever wonders Johnny Football may work, ranks as the fourth worst team in the NFL. Baltimore has been surprisingly bad this year, ravaged by injuries, and Pittsburgh is fighting for a playoff spot – an effort which won’t be aided by extended time on the IR for Big Ben.

NFC East: 0.507

Washington is the only really bad team here, with the Giants and Eagles both being top ten teams. Dallas may be the real surprise – they have won only two games yet are ranked as an above average team, mostly due to close games with the Giants, Seahawks, and Eagles – all solid teams by our estimation. Although it may be too late for them to sneak into the playoffs, they aren’t nearly as bad as their record suggests.

NFC South: 0.522

What may have been the worst division last year comes in a surprising 4th best this year. The Panthers have outperformed expectations massively and are undefeated. They actually ranked pretty low early on, due to an easy schedule, but with wins over Seattle and Green Bay they have steadily climbed to fifth. The Falcons are actually ranked lower than the Saints despite having a two game lead over them, due to last minute wins and an easy schedule. And Tampa Bay could actually prove dangerous – both Atlanta and New Orleans have lost to them! Whether that proves that the Bucs are somewhat good or the Falcons and Saints are somewhat bad remains to be seen….

AFC West: 0.528

With a loss to Peyton’s old team, the Broncos drop to 7th. Kansas City and Oakland are both having very strong years by our model, despite the fact that neither have a winning percentage over .500. San Diego actually, with a loss to the Bears on Monday night, dropped pretty far below average but are still the strongest of the other division bottom-dwellers by quite a margin. For reference, we predict the Chargers would be the 2nd best team in the AFC South and would be neck-and-neck with the Colts down the stretch for the divisional title.

AFC East: 0.540

With a routine destruction of Washington, the Patriots maintained their iron grip on first place in the POWER Rankings, well above any other team. For context, in terms of win probability, the difference between the Patriots and Seattle, the second best team in the NFL, is nearly the same as the difference between the Seahawks and the New York Giants, the 8th best team in the NFL. The Jets have been New England’s stiffest competition so far this season, and it shows in the POWER Rankings as they come in just outside the top ten. Buffalo is solid, and Miami, despite preseason projections, is the only bad team.

NFC West: 0.541

In our post last week on the seven tiers of NFL teams, only one division had two teams in the contender category. This is the NFC West, and these teams are the Cardinals and Seahawks. It shouldn’t be too surprising to many of our readers to see the top division of the last few seasons once again ranked on top. The below average Rams and severely below average 49ers bring down the average significantly, however, improved quarterback play would dramatically help these teams. This seems unlikely given Blaine Gabbert’s historical performance and Nick Foles’s complete inability to throw for over 200 yards.

Having done this, we can also very easily see the strength of each conference. The AFC, dragged down by the garbage dump masquerading as the AFC South has an average POWER Ranking of 0.4873, while the NFC clocks in at 0.5127. Perhaps this slight conference imbalance, coupled with the Patriots’s astronomical dominance, is the reason for New England’s severely high (but accurate) odds of winning the Superbowl.