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Tag - Bracketology

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Balance Wins Championships

March 18, 2021
by harvardsports
6 min read
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During the NCAA men's basketball tournament, teams with more balance perform better than those which excel in only one area of the game.

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  • Basketball
  • March Madness
  • NCAA Basketball
  • NCAA Basketball

HSAC’s 68 Facts: March Madness 2021

March 17, 2021
by harvardsports
13 min read
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After a year without March Madness, the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective is excited to bring back our highly-anticipated 68 March Madness Facts article for the 2021 edition of the tournament. Here are some insights on every...

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  • March Madness
  • NCAA Basketball

HSAC’s 68 Facts: March Madness 2016

March 16, 2016
by harvardsports
10 min read
2 Comments

By William Ezekowitz Here’s a dirty little secret about March Madness. The difference between a bad bracket and a good bracket is skill, but the difference between a good bracket and a great bracket is luck. Anyone who has won...

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  • March Madness
  • NCAA Basketball
  • NCAA Basketball

HSAC’s 65 Facts: March Madness 2015

March 17, 2015
by harvardsports
11 min read
2 Comments

by Will Ezekowitz It is important to remember that statistically predicting the NCAA tournament, despite what FiveThirtyEight and others may tell you, is largely a fool’s errand. Most of these games are close to coin tosses...

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  • March Madness
  • NCAA Basketball
  • NCAA Basketball

How Does One Year’s Tournament Performance Affect the Next?

March 17, 2015
by harvardsports
3 min read
2 Comments

  by Kurt Bullard After finishing the 2014 season 35-1 and running the table in the conference, Wichita State earned a one-seed to the dismay of mid-major haters around the country. The Shockers drew the No. 8 Kentucky in...

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  • March Madness
  • NCAA Basketball
  • NCAA Basketball

Conference Bias in the NCAA Tournament

March 16, 2015
by harvardsports
3 min read
11 Comments

By Kurt Bullard With the brackets now set and Harvard cementing its status as an Ivy League dynasty with four straight NCAA Tournament bids, over 40 million people will begin to fill out brackets for the chance to win bragging...

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  • NCAA Basketball

Predicting the Madness: 2013 Upset Edition

March 18, 2013
by harvardsports
2 min read
18 Comments

For the past two years, I have worked on a model that predicts NCAA Tournament upsets using the gospel of tempo-free basketball stats, the Four Factors. Over that time, the model has gone a perfect six for six in predicting 11...

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  • NCAA Basketball

Survival of the Fittest: A New Model for NCAA Tournament Prediction

March 14, 2012
by harvardsports
14 min read
20 Comments

(Editor’s note: You can see the model’s 2012 1-68 rankings here and full bracket here) Every year, millions of Americans tune in to watch the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, colloquially known as March...

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  • NCAA Basketball

2012 NCAA Survival Model Full Rankings

March 14, 2012
by harvardsports
1 min read
7 Comments

Below is my full Survival Model rankings for the NCAA tournament in 2012. The numbers are tough to interpret, but they represent the relative risk of failing (losing) at a given time period. Lower numbers represent better chances...

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  • NCAA Basketball

Predicting NCAA Tournament Upsets: The Importance of Turnovers and Rebounding

March 12, 2012
by harvardsports
4 min read
36 Comments

For the past two years, I have attempted to systematically predict First Round NCAA Tournament upsets using a dataset of match-ups from 2004 onward. Last year, I improved the model by adding opponent Four Factors data, and the...

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