By Kevin Liu
This past Sunday against the Oakland Raiders, Cam Little of the Jacksonville Jaguars made history. With seconds left in the first half, he drilled a record-breaking 68-yard field goal, edging past the previous 66-yard record set by Justin Tucker four years ago. Those three measly points proved crucial: Jacksonville went on to force overtime and eventually win by a single point.
It got me thinking: just how valuable is an elite kicker?
Over the past two decades, kicking talent has exploded. Compared to just 5 years ago, kickers are making nearly double the number of 50+ yard field goals, and compared to the start of the century, five times as many. Accuracy just keeps on climbing year after year.
Yet even the best kickers miss. In 2024, Brandon Aubrey of the Dallas Cowboys was magnificent, making a fantastic 14 of 17 from 50+ yards out. But he finished with only 85% of his field goals made, which is roughly 0.45 expected points lost every time he lined up.
A great kicker lightens the offensive load and simplifies the game. Less pressure to move the chains down the field, fewer risky fourth-down calls, etc. But what if you had a perfect kicker (PK), one that was automatic from anywhere inside 70 yards?
Methodology
Using 2000-2024 play-by-play data from via nfl-data-py, I simulated how each NFL team’s results would change if they had a PK.
Definition of PK:
- Every field goal attempt within 70 yards automatically becomes a make (+3 points)
- Every missed or blocked PAT becomes a make (+1 point)
- Every punt past the 52-yard line becomes a field goal of at most 70 yards (8 yards for snap distance and 10 yards for the endzone) (+3 points).
For each team and season, I built a theoretical score by applying these rules, and I compared each team’s adjusted score to their opponent’s actual score to estimate the additional wins a PK contributes.
[Play-calling in real life is score context dependent. I assume static decision making by the coaches, and I’ll incorporate win-probability adjustments in the future to refine this.]
Results
PKs have enormous impacts. Across the last five years, a perfect kicker can add 1.2 to 1.6 wins per team per season on average, contributing around 60 extra points across a full year.
Teams with sluggish offenses or inconsistent kickers benefited the most (see the 2000 Baltimore Ravens), and PK would have single-handedly pushed some teams into the postseason.
2022 Jets Case Study
To illustrate, we can look at my favorite team, the New York Jets, in their 2022 season.
The Jets paired their top-3 defense otherwise with a putrid bottom-three offense, finishing 7-10 and missing the postseason entirely. They had Greg Zuerlein at the time, a decent kicker who made 80% of his field goals and six from beyond 50 yards that season. With a PK, the Jets were projected to finish 9-8, edging out the Dolphins for the final playoff spot. Here were the details of two crucial season-changing games:
- December 18th, 2022 – vs. Detroit Lions (L 17 – 20):
The Jets lost a heartbreaker to the Lions. With two minutes left in the first half, the Jets had a prime scoring opportunity, flying their way down to Detroit’s 33-yard line. After a Zach Wilson intentional grounding penalty and a sack taken, they punted away their chance at points at the 50-yard line. PK could have kicked a 68-yarder right there. Later on, in the last seconds of the fourth quarter, Zach Wilson miraculously converted a 4th and 18, only for Zuerlein to miss a 58-yard field goal wide left. With a PK, this L turns into a W. - January 8th, 2023 – vs. Miami Dolphins (L 6 – 11):
The Jets lost the final game of the season to the injury-beset Dolphins. Zuerlein missed a field goal early on in the second, and the Jets passed on two long FG attempts from 60 and 69 yards, which PK would have both nailed. These three potential FGs would have flipped the result to a 15 – 11 Jets victory, catapulting New York into the third wild card spot.
With a PK on standby, the Jets could have tasted the postseason for the first time in a decade. Instead, they’re left with the current longest playoff drought out of the four major North American sports.
Conclusion
NFL kickers are quietly evolving into lethal, precise weapons with their cannon-like leg power and pinpoint accuracy. As seen with the New York Jets in 2022, the difference between a good kicker and an elite kicker could be the difference between Cancun and the postseason. While adding field goals retroactively doesn’t encapsulate cascading score effects and coaches would naturally scheme differently if PK existed, this analysis is a good first step in quantifying the tangible win impact of elite special teams.
With restricted free agent Brandon Aubrey hitting the market next offseason and young phenoms like Cam Little breaking records, the league is beginning to recognize what the data already shows: the right leg just might be worth a win or two every year.
