Tag Archives: March Madness

Cinderella or Fairytale: March Madness v. the FA Cup

by Julian Ryan In America, March is the month of the Cinderella story for even the most casual of college basketball followers.  Millions of fans will turn on their televisions in the hope of watching the next Butler make a run at winning it all. England has its own equivalent of the Tournament: the FA …Read More

In Which an Infinite Number of Monkeys Brag About Picking Northern Iowa

By David Roher There are over nine quintillion ways to fill out your bracket, and over four hundred trillion ways to predict the first two rounds alone. Based on the craziness of the first four days of the tournament, I bet you wish your bracket was one of the other nine quintillion. With the overall …Read More

Predicting NCAA Tournament Upsets: Favorite Vulnerability

By John Ezekowitz On Tuesday, I looked at predicting upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Today I’m looking at which favorites are vulnerable to upsets. Again, I created a database of NCAA Tournament favorites’ tempo-free stat profiles using KenPom.com’s invaluable data.  My dataset covers the last 6 NCAA Tournaments (compared to ESPN.com’s analysis, which only uses …Read More

March Madness for (Statistically Inclined) Dummies

Author note: This article originally appeared on the old HSAC blog around this time last year, back when I was a wee freshman (I am now a no-less-wee sophomore). But because that blog has been lost to the ages, and because this piece is team-independent, I figured some people might be interested in it. If …Read More

Predicting NCAA Tournament Upsets: The Underdogs

By John Ezekowitz A few weeks ago, when I started analyzing the effects of tempo on NCAA Tournament upsets, I got a crazy idea: what if I could find a model that would predict factors of successful underdogs? I’ve always tried especially hard to successfully predict first and second round NCAA Tournament upsets. Those rare …Read More