Stone Cold Stats: WWE Elo Ratings

By Harrison Chase and Henry Johnson

With SummerSlam 2015 around the corner, it’s worth stating the obvious:  WWE is complicated.

Professional wrestling is stuffed with backstories, rivalries, and plot twists so numerous that Christopher Nolan would need a second viewing. Take, for instance, the longtime feud between Randy Orton and Triple H.

The kayfabe fight between these legends has spanned countless matches and more than a decade. They’ve battled 1 v. 1, with mutual enemies in the ring, and with teammates at their side.

The feud has even taken some personal turns, like when Randy Orton stole a kiss from Stephanie McMahon, or when Triple H broke in and Jazzed Randy Orton from his own house.

It’s easy to pick out classic moments from this rivalry; a much harder task is picking a winner. Triple H has had success against Randy Orton in direct matchups, notably at Unforgiven in 2004 and Wrestlemania XXV.  But it’s also important to look at their records in other matches. Scissors might conquer paper, but paper beats rock, which beats scissors. The direct contest doesn’t capture the power balance in the game or in WWE, which is long on standoffs and short on transitivity. To paraphrase Ric Flair, to be the man, you either have to beat the man or beat some men who beat him.

Luckily, we have a better way of determining who in the blue hell is best: the Elo rating system. The system, originally designed to rank chess players, looks at a competitor’s victories and the strength of his competition. In WWE terms, that means if an unknown beats a world champion, you can expect the underdog’s Elo rating to jump substantially.

The data we used are from profightdb.com, which catalogs wrestling matches over various associations. Worth noting is that we used data strictly from WWE—the WWF years (which ended in 2002) aren’t factored into these calculations. For 2 v. 2 matchups, we created two “teams”, then split the winning team’s gains and losing team’s losses, meaning we assumed that teammates contributed equally.

Ranking Name Elo Rating Matches
1 Randy Orton 2227.108 1153
2 John Cena 2225.473 1445
3 Roman Reigns 2202.128 527
4 C. M. Punk 2098.638 667
5 Ryback 2098.263 561
6 Daniel Bryan 2088.586 817
7 Edge 2043.372 557
8 Seth Rollins 2004.443 467
9 The Undertaker 1985.05 299
10 Chris Jericho 1969.91 590
11 Sheamus 1957.662 879
12 Batista 1953.927 468
13 Brock Lesnar 1953.608 123
14 Nikki Bella 1945.057 398
15 Rusev 1939.599 227
16 Big E. Langston 1921.344 148
17 The Big Show 1918.298 1135
18 Bobby Lashley 1904.311 161
19 Cesaro 1871.577 387
20 Eve Torres 1869.777 223
21 Jeff Hardy 1850.639 285
22 Christian 1832.615 471
23 Bray Wyatt 1812.788 285
24 Dolph Ziggler 1808.094 854
25 Triple H 1805.832 465
26 Wade Barrett 1802.945 387
27 Kurt Angle 1790.823 220
28 Shawn Michaels 1790.447 334
29 Rob Van Dam 1782.759 463
30 Goldberg 1781.919 51
31 Hornswoggle 1770.651 132
32 Alexander Rusev 1769.249 29
33 The Great Khali 1763.639 487
34 Chris Benoit 1761.072 414
35 Santina 1755.655 34
36 Adrian Neville 1745.339 90
37 Booker T. 1744.377 278
38 Luke Harper 1743.274 302
39 Rey Mysterio 1742.362 759
40 A. J. Lee 1727.603 221
41 Ric Flair 1723.084 175
42 Mr. Kennedy 1715.682 108
43 Mark Henry 1714.502 608
44 Finn Bálor 1714.35 21
45 Neville 1708.949 96
46 Trish Stratus 1703.804 190
47 Bradshaw 1690.658 73
48 Mickie James 1688.905 225
49 Jerry Lawler 1679.803 63
50 Ted DiBiase 1679.094 85
51 Juventud Guerrera 1678.741 27
52 Ashley Massaro 1672.366 60
53 Sean O’Haire 1672.075 26
54 The Rock 1670.486 26
55 Sami Zayn 1667.207 78
56 Natalya 1665.608 647
57 Bill DeMott 1665.078 36
58 Viscera 1659.556 101
59 John Bradshaw Layfield 1656.578 150
60 Charlotte 1644.671 58
61 The Boogeyman 1641.854 38
62 Michelle McCool 1640.826 189
63 Eddie Guerrero 1640.622 209
64 Bad News Barrett 1637.387 157
65 Dean Ambrose 1633.185 602
66 Kelly Kelly 1630.84 263
67 Snitsky 1630.209 57
68 King Booker 1629.596 60
69 Paige 1622.854 269
70 Mr. McMahon 1619.987 38
71 Montel Vontavious Porter 1619.714 269
72 Test 1619.683 107
73 Umaga 1618.61 114
74 Jr. 1613.09 76
75 Sin Cara 1612.154 532
76 Garrison Cade 1609.412 68
77 Lita 1609.001 70
78 Muhammad Hassan 1602.108 25
79 Skip Sheffield 1601.824 51
80 Big E 1600.273 326
81 Shelton Benjamin 1599.379 389
82 Ken Kennedy 1598.62 6
83 Big Daddy V 1596.593 29
84 AJ 1595.044 66
85 Lord Tensai 1591.761 7
86 Ron Simmons 1589.683 14
87 Stardust 1589.167 187
88 El Torito 1586.837 122
89 John Morrison 1585.785 314
90 Beth Phoenix 1580.198 233
91 Rodney Mack 1580.19 49
92 Candice Michelle 1580.042 94
93 Vito 1578.035 27
94 Scott Steiner 1577.703 51
95 Lance Cade 1577.518 119
96 Johnny Nitro 1577.085 122
97 Matt Morgan 1576.054 12
98 Finlay 1575.298 224
99 Kevin Owens 1573.87 49
100 Alberto Del Rio 1573.219 619

According to the Elo ratings, Randy Orton is the greatest wrestler in WWE history. If we use Elo (and suspend disbelief regarding scriptedness), we would expect Randy Orton to have a 91.9% win probability against Triple H. His stiffest competition comes from John Cena, whom the system grants a 49.8% chance of victory against Orton. Heavyweight World Champion Seth Rollins isn’t as formidable as Orton quite yet—historical performance suggests Orton would have a 78.2% chance of beating the young star. Rollins may be the best there is, but Randy Orton is the best there was.

We can also see how the system thinks SummerSlam will pan out. According to the ratings, Cesaro has an 84.7% probability of beating Kevin Owens. Broken-nosed John Cena (78.1%) is favored to take the belt from Seth Rollins. And in one of the most talked-about rematches in WWE history, The Undertaker (54.5%) is predicted to avenge his loss to Brock Lesnar.

These predictions shouldn’t be taken too seriously. To begin with, Elo ratings are designed for one-on-one matchups, which the WWE strays from frequently. Our methods also don’t properly credit WWF success. Most importantly, Vince McMahon’s team may not feel any obligation to obey historical probability. But as facebreakers and bodyslams go, it’s as close as we can get to quantitative truth. The real answers will come Sunday.

And that’s the bottom line.

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If you’re interested in seeing the match data or the full rankings, check out our GitHub account. Think your favorite wrestler isn’t getting proper credit? Leave us a comment or send an email. And, as always, keep up with the club on Twitter.

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