Now up on Advanced NFL Stats: Kevin Meers tries to properly value coach’s challenges.
The coach’s challenge is an important yet poorly understood part of the NFL. We know challenges are an asset, but past that, we do not have a good understanding of what makes a good challenge or if coaches are actually skilled at challenging plays. This post takes a step towards better understanding those questions by examining the value of the possible game states that stem from challenged plays.
To value challenges, we must understand how challenges change the game’s current state. When a play is challenged, the current game state must transition into one of two new game states: one where the challenged play is reversed, the other where it is upheld. These potential game states are the key to valuing challenges.
Read more here.